By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. (10), Hungary Mr. Tulenko joined Moodys in 1990. Ms Hill has over 30 years of experience in business management and leading engineering and operations organizations. With the inclusion of sector data and default rates and the inclusion of market data, the default probabilities are more accurate and move more responsively to reflect the change in default rates as conditions change. (1), Georgia (1), Kentucky (2), Burundi This document is intended to be provided only to wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Could Reach 7% By December 2021 Ratings Performance Analytics: Nick W Kraemer, Jon Palmer, Kirsten R Mccabe Research Contributor: Shripati Pranshu Sector Default Transition & Recovery View Analyst Contact Information Table of Contents Key Takeaways Prior to Cisco, Ms Hill had a number of engineering roles at various technology companies. (5), Barbados Mr. Kenney is responsible for overseeing Moodys Global Internal Audit function, including providing an independent oversight function that evaluates the processes and controls over the organizations financial, technology, ratings and operational activities. (2), Malawi Chief Financial OfficerMark Kaye is the Chief Financial Officer of Moodys Corporation with responsibility and oversight for all global financial activities. Providing trusted insights and standards that help decision makers act with confidence. (2), Israel (6), Lebanon (2), Ireland (2), St. Vincent and the Grenadines Van Saun currently serves as the chief executive officer and chairman of a U.S. bank. in economics from the University of Virginia and his M.B.A. from the Johnson School of Management at Cornell University. Retired Global Chairman of Financial Institutions GroupJPMorgan Chase & Co.Director since March 2019Thrse Esperdy, age 61, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. The IFRS 9 guidelines pose some interesting challenges, including the following: An important consideration in the impairment model in IFRS 9 is the use of forward-looking information in the models. Breed was a finalist for the New York CIO of the Year ORBIE Award in the Global category. Subscribers can access the report at: http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1258722. 12/31/2021: 21.08: 28.68: 11/30/2022: 3.52-13.12: 12/31/2022-.51-18.13: visit our web site at www.moodys.com. Ms. Elliott has more than 25 years in senior-level corporate communications roles. (2), Thailand (1), US Late Credit Cycle Risks She served as a Public Governor of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). Despite this challenge, Moodys again achieved considerable success, and I am impressed with the ways in which the Company has sustained and, in many areas, enhanced its contribution to financial market efficiency, transparency and fairness.As the pandemic has highlighted the demand for understanding of the complex and interconnected risks facing markets, businesses and economies, Moodys has stepped up to the challenge through its strategy of offering an integrated and holistic perspective on risk for customers.Important elements of this strategy in 2021 were the many investments made in new and evolving risk segments, including: cyber risk, Know Your Customer (KYC); Commercial Real Estate; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG), and other high-growth adjacencies. Moody's Investors Service provides investors with a comprehensive view of global debt markets through credit ratings and research. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODYS that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a wholesale client and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to retail clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MCO and Moodys Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moodys Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes. Ms. Alsop currently serves on the Trident American Dreams Advisory Board and is a founding member of the Womens Business Resource Group at Moodys. (2), Senegal (1), Massachusetts Moody's municipal ratings are opinions of the investment quality of the issues and issues in the US municipal and tax-exempt markets. (55), Micronesia At Moodys, we believe we play an important role in supporting a sustainable future, and that means we must support our people, our communities and our environment.In 2021, we published our inaugural Sustainability Report (available at about.moodys.io/sustainability-reports) highlighting our commitments, initiatives, and achievements.Our greatest asset is our people.We continue to advance our commitment to a diverse and inclusive work environment because we believe that a workforce with an array of backgrounds and experiences greatly contributes to the quality of our opinions, products and services.In 2021, we published multi-year goals for the diversity of our workforce, supported by a range of initiatives and programs that foster inclusion. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. The Company is proud to have met its Supplier Diversity Initiative pledge to increase the representation of women-owned businesses in its supply chain, and of the commitment made in 2021 to materially increase the population of women, and U.S. Black and Hispanic / Latino leaders across the company by 2025. Executive Vice President & General CounselJohn Goggins is Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Moodys Corporation. (358), Africa: Emergence and transformation from 2005 to 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch from 2009 to 2011, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2011 to 2017, the Association of Former Students, Texas A&M University from 2005 to 2012, the American Institute of Architects for the entirety of 2015, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas from 2010 to 2016. (6), Azerbaijan The Oil & Gas sector suffered from a very sharp drop in oil prices in 2020 as the pandemic severely curbed economic activity and energy demand, and the lack of an agreement on supply cuts early in 2020. (1), Iowa Lead Independent Director Moodys Corporation Retired Chief Executive Officer Becton DickinsonDirector since April 2018Vincent A. Forlenza, age 68, is the Lead Independent Director, Chairman of the Governance & Nominating Committee, and a member of the Audit, Compensation & Human Resources and Executive Committees of the Board of Directors. Announcement: Moody's appends Belk's Probability of Default rating of Ca-PD with LD designationGlobal Credit Research - 04 Feb 2021New York, February 04, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody . Study shows repeated company defaults usually reflect prolonged industry stress. Ms Seidman previously served as a Public Governor of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (2014-2019). Mr. Goggins joined the firm in 1999 as Vice President and Associate General Counsel. Looking at the risk profile of the Swedish corporate bond market reveals several notable trends. The 2.1% fallen angel rate in 2020, although noticeably higher than the 1.1% rate in 2019, matched the long-term average since 1983. (2), Ukraine She held various executive roles at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan) from 1997 through 2015, including Global Chairman of Financial Institutions Group, Co-Head of Banking, Asia Pacific, and Head of Global Debt Capital Markets. He served in a variety of positions while at Deloitte, served as Global Director of Compliance for Take Two Interactive and Internal Auditor at Staff Builders Home Health Care.Mr. She previously held a variety of communications positions at American Express and was a journalist for ABC News, where she earned an Emmy award. He is the chairman of the Board of Trustees of The Valley Health System and a member of the Board of Directors of the Quest Autism Foundation. June 2021 . During her tenure, the FASB established numerous accounting standards relating to financial instruments, including securitizations, derivatives and credit losses and worked with regulators and policy makers in the U.S., and in other major capital markets to develop consistent accounting standards. At RBS, Mr. Van Saun served as Group Finance Director and as an executive director on the RBS board from 2009 to 2013. From 1987 to 1996, Ms Seidman served as Vice President, Accounting Policy and in other roles at J.P. Morgan & Company, Inc. (now JPMorgan Chase) and from 1984 to 1987, Ms Seidman served as an auditor for Arthur Young & Co. (now EY). (6), Mozambique President, Moody's Investors Service Mr. West has served as President of Moodys Investors Service, Inc. since November 2019. So far in the fourth quarter there have been nine defaults, four based in China as Chinese real estate developers continue to face funding challenges (see "Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2022 China Decelerates, Fed . - statistical model . About. In 2021, we contributed to this goal through our many Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, the work of the Moodys Foundation, and by encouraging employee volunteerism.Highlights of our 2021 CSR program include the introduction of paid time off for employees to volunteer and meaningful support in the form of a $16 million contribution to the Moodys Foundation. Refinancing risk rises for US companies as maturities peak, interest rates increase, economy weakens. (5), Macedonia (former Yugoslav Republic of) Mr. West served as Managing DirectorHead of MIS Ratings and Research from June 2016 to October 2019. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kenney was a Managing Director at Deloitte, serving as leader to several internal audit departments, external financial statement audits, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance efforts and large regulatory compliance engagements. Moody's municipal ratings are opinions of the investment quality of the issues and issues in the US municipal and tax-exempt markets. Mr. Forlenza served as BDs Chief Executive Officer from 2011 to January 2020 and President from 2009 to April 2017. The maximum number of items you can export is 3,000. (2), Bankruptcy, Troubled Credits & Turnarounds (1361), Asia Pacific DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. He also is a member of the advisory committees for Finance and Audit at OnePulse Foundation. He joined Citizens from The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS), a global banking and financial services group. Loss given default (LGD) measures the expected loss, net of any recoveries, expressed as a percentage and will be unique to the industry or segment. Stockholders and other stakeholders may communicate with the Board, or with a specific director or directors, by writing to: 2022 Moodys Corporation, Moodys Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). (2), Kenya Ms. Calculates the expected distribution of portfolio or tranche losses as a result of either default or rating transitions. Default & Recovery Database | Moody's Analytics Default & Recovery Database With default data going back to 1920, the Default & Recovery Database (DRD) allows you to look at how default experience varies at different points in the economic cycle. (2), Cambodia The speculative-grade corporate default rate will climb to 4.3% next year under our baseline forecast, up from 2.3% in September. Senior Vice President,Chief Strategy OfficerMr. RiskCalc v3.1 does a good job of predicting actual default rates. (2), Finland She is also a member of the Dell, Zoom and AWS North American Customer Advisory Boards, and sits on the AEA Investors LP Senior Advisory Council. (1), The Big Picture This page provides a central resource for Moodys research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, ratingtransitions and performance, and liquidity studies. He served as the Executive Group President, Group Leader, Civil and Commercial Group, from 2013 to 2016, as Executive Vice President, Client Services Officer, from 2009 to 2013, and as Vice President, Strategy and Organization, from 2000 to 2009. His service as a director also contributes to his focus on corporate governance matters. If this isn't what you are looking for, you can, Moody's Default and Ratings Analytics team publishes Moodys default studies, ratings transitions and ratings performance studies for corporates, financial institutions, sovereign and sub-sovereign, public finance and infrastructure sectors. Moody's Investors Service Risk Quantification Evaluate, manage, and mitigate climate risks and their impacts through scenario analysis, quantitative modelling and stress testing. Moody's Investors Service's 34th annual default study provides statistics on defaults, losses and rating transitions for corporate bond, loan and deposit issuers over the past year. (5), Morocco (2), Default Trends Global December 2022 Default Report - Excel Data, Default Trends Global: December 2022 Default Report, Structured Finance: November 2022 structured rating transitions, Default Trends Global: Compendium of 2021 corporate defaults, Default Trends - Latin America & Caribbean: Latin American corporate default rate will rise gradually in 2023 as growth stalls, Default Trends Global November 2022 Default Report - Excel Data, Structured Finance - Global : October 2022 structured rating transitions (Jan 2009 - October 2022) - Excel supplement, Structured Finance - Global : October 2022 structured rating transitions (Jan 1993 - October 2022) - Excel supplement, Structured Finance: October 2022 structured rating transitions. (649), Infrastructure & Project Finance Ba2/BB: This is the next rating down from the highest non-investment grade rating, regarded as speculative. (2), Bhutan Firstly, as seen in Panel A of Figure 1.3, the credit quality of Swedish bond issuances has been decreasing, both since 2000 but more notably since 2009 when the market began growing substantially.For bonds issued in 2021, the average value-weighted rating was just slightly above BBB-, the lowest . Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kapusta served as counsel for a large New York City law firm and held several senior roles within Deloitte, where he provided corporate and tax advice to U.S. multinationals. Chief People OfficerMaral Kazanjian is the Chief People Officer of Moodys Corporation she is also a member of the Executive Leadership Team. For illustrative . (1), District of Columbia Default Trends and Rating Transitions | Moody's Default Trends and Rating Transitions This page provides a central resource for Moody's research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies. The rating scale used by Moody's is: Rating Scale of Moody . He previously served as the Companys President and Chief Executive Officer from April 2012 to December 2020, and served as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from April 2005 until April 2012. The Companys common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MCO. Mr. Kenney also oversees risk assurance for the Corporation. (2), Monaco He was a member of the Texas A&M Foundation Board of Trustees (2014-2021). (2), South Africa (6), Switzerland Managing this risk is critical to informing key strategic decisions from security initiatives to capital allocation given that its reach extends across supply chains. JOURNALISTS : 1 212 553 0376Client Service : 1 212 553 1653, Releasing Office :Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007U.S.A.JOURNALISTS : 1 212 553 0376Client Service : 1 212 553 1653. (2), Antigua and Barbuda Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for. (1938), German There were differences in default rates across sectors. (7), Sri Lanka Prior to that role, Ms. Sullivan supported the Global Wealth &Investment Management business from 2015 to 2017 in a variety of positions including Controller. (8), Armenia (6), Philippines (2), European Union (71), Rating Performance Supports risk assessment of specific credit default swaps (CDS), bonds, and loans. (2007) paper, which uses the Moody's hazard rate of default (if the credit rating for a firm is not available, . (2), Guinea-Bissau (2), Peru (2), Albania 6 These observations became available in the late fall of 2003, after the model was finalized. (1), Colorado Breed is responsible for all global enterprise technology programs and activities. He is a member of the New York State Bar. (1), New Mexico (2), Haiti President, Moody's AnalyticsStephen Tulenko serves as President for Moodys Analytics. Governments and others are increasingly using climate analytics to better inform climate mitigation and adaptation measures, and stakeholders are seeking ways to better understand the progress and impact of corporate de-carbonization commitments. from the University of Chicago and a B.A. (2), Cook Islands (10), Cocos (Keeling) Islands (1), Oregon Moody's Investors Service provides investors with a comprehensive view of global debt markets through credit ratings and research. (2), Nigeria By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. (2), Congo, Democratic Republic of (DRC) Mr. McDaniel served as the Companys Executive Vice President from April 2003 to January 2004, and as Senior Vice President, Global Ratings and Research from November 2000 until April 2003. He led Citizens to a successful initial public offering in September 2014, and full independence from RBS in October 2015. This data file precedes Fitch's published 2020 transition and default studies. (6), Jordan He serves as a director of the Community Foundation of Brazos Valley where he served as Chairman from July 2013 to June 2014 and currently serves as the chairman of the Investment Committee.Mr. (70), New Zealand (2), Bahamas (2021) note that one third of all U.S. corporate bonds have a fixed call feature, . Flexibility: Provides universal identifiers, such as CUSIPs and SIC codes; primary keys for complex querying; and classifications for debt type, rating type, and region, as well as flags. (1), Maine Prior to this appointment, Mr. Tulenko was Executive Director of Enterprise Risk Solutions from 2013 to October 2019 and Executive Director of Sales, Customer Service and Marketing from 2008 to 2013. (2), Myanmar (2), Guyana In 2021, Ms. (1), Nevada CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. Allows users to calculate the probability that any specific credit will cross a predefined threshold by a particular date. All rights reserved. In this role, Ms. As a result, Mr. Bermudez brings a deep understanding of credit risk and years of financial expertise, as well as risk management experience, to the Board. (18), Colombia Previously, Mr. Hogan held the role of EMEA Regional Controller from June 2013 to September 2016; and from July 2010 to June 2013, he held various senior roles within the Finance organization. The markets looked to Moodys for our expertise and insights in navigating evolving credit conditions, and many organizations sought our help in making better, more informed decisions in financing, screening, lending, insuring and investing. (1), Indiana 12/31/2021: 31.57: 32.25: 11/30/2022: 5.44: 5.53: 12/31/2022: 0.67: 2.31: Decisions around classification of assets into different stages and the calculation of the expected credit losses require consideration of forward . (2), Chad CONTACT OUR EXPERTS solutions covering Global Economy, Sovereigns & Sub-Sovereigns Sectors & Portfolios Companies Macroeconomic scenarios Moody's Analytics Moody's returned $116 million to its stockholders via dividend payments during the fourth quarter of 2021. Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. For example, an A- rated bond has a probability of default over five years of 0.57%. Her experience as the Chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, executive at a major bank and auditor for a major accounting firm allows her to bring to the Board significant knowledge of global accounting and financial reporting matters in addition to regulatory and senior management experience. 2 and 3 respectively.MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements. (1), Emerging Markets (6), Netherlands Antilles London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong 19 Oct 2022 | Moody's Investors Service The speculative-grade corporate default rate will climb to 4.3% next year under our baseline forecast, up from 2.3% in September. This rating is assigned to less creditworthy carriers and securities by the ratings . (9), Iran That rate, if realized, would exceed the historical average. As the pandemic has highlighted the demand for understanding of the complex and interconnected risks facing markets, businesses and economies, Moodys has stepped up to the challenge through its strategy of offering an integrated and holistic perspective on risk for customers. Previously, Ms Seidman was the founder and managing member of a financial reporting consulting firm that served global financial institutions, law firms and accounting firms. in Statistics and Actuarial Science, both from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries. (2), Tunisia (2), Sudan He enjoys spending time with his family and is a licensed pilot. (91), Austria (6), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2), Bulgaria Ms Hill served in a number of positions at Cisco Systems, Inc. from 1997 to 2013, including, among others, Executive Advisor from 2011 to 2013, Senior Vice President, Development Strategy and Operations from 2009 to 2011, Senior Vice President, Access Networking and Services Group from 2008 to 2009 and Senior Vice President, Ethernet Systems and Wireless Technology Group from 2005 to 2008. Moody's returned $116 million to its stockholders via dividend payments during the second quarter of 2021. Consequently, we can approximate between 64,000 and a little over 100,000 mortgages will be at risk of a default in Louisiana over the next few months. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. A record-high amount of debt matures in 2023-27, and the amount due in the first few years is rising. (1), Missouri (1), Vermont This increases for the lowest investment grade credit rating 'BBB-' to 2.84%. He served as a director of Citibank N.A. (1), Arkansas (6), Panama - Off Shore (1), English (2), Botswana Moodys accelerated its own net-zero commitments to 2040, advanced its science-based targets, and published its inaugural Stakeholder Sustainability Report. At OnePulse Foundation over five years of experience in business management and leading engineering and organizations..., would exceed the historical average as Group Finance director and as an Executive on! At the risk profile of the Texas a & M Foundation Board Trustees! 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